2014 NBA Free Agency Preview

In the history of the NBA, free agency went from irrelevant to one of the most sacred events in the entire league.  Although the draft has usually held higher preference for GMs, the free agent market has become a yearly festival of trade rumors, subtle hints dropped and teams courting players.  For example, LeBron James’ wife Savannah recently posted an Instagram photo that discussed finally being able to go back home to Akron.  Naturally, this caused a media circus, as several believed that this was the first step for LeBron to return to Cleveland.

Once again, James finds himself as the star attraction in the 2014 free agency class as he chose to opt out of his six year deal with the Heat to test the waters and expand his options.  Most will agree that this is a smart move, giving LeBron the flexibility to go wherever he pleases and also allows other teams to package together deals to make their franchise “fit for a king”.  Cleveland would be an obvious choice and I’m sure that by now that I don’t have to explain why a return to Ohio may be imminent.  The letter that owner Dan Gilbert wrote was pretty unnecessary and simply an excuse to air the sentiments of the entire Cleveland fan base.  I would not be surprised if the letter and the negative reaction from “The Decision” still hangs over the head of LeBron to this day.

If he decides to return to Cleveland, it would once again send shockwaves throughout the league, similar to when he left in 2010.  Many would view this as taking the easy way out to form yet another “super-team” in an attempt for the title.  At this point, you cannot entirely fault LeBron for leaving, since it is basically the strategy to recruit stars to come together in an attempt to win a title; albeit the Spurs.  This is why San Antonio’s 16-year run is even more impressive due to the longevity of their stars, excellent drafting and finding the right role players to round out their roster.  This Spurs dynasty will remain something to marvel at for years to come and should be a lesson to the rest of the league.  However, this is not the front office mentality anymore.  Everything is either “rebuilding” or “win-now” mode, as teams tend to become impatient by throwing around money to produce a winner and most importantly “revenue”. 

This is the reason for these lucrative contracts that are essentially handed out to players that don’t really deserve it.  In fact, is anyone really worth a whopping contract these days? I realize that with inflation and especially the inflation of professional sports salaries have caused this to become a serious problem but now any all-star believes that he should make 20 million a year. I distinctly remember KG signing his then record breaking contract with Minnesota to become the first player to sign for over 100 million dollars and it hasn’t stopped since.  In the past decade, we’ve seen stars in decline cashing in for their previous body of work rather than what they could still contribute (Amare Stoudamire, Gilbert Arenas & Rashard Lewis) and in turn, plaguing the teams that offered max contracts to begin with.

All Hibachi, Zero Sizzle

This brings me back to the original topic of this article, the present state of the free agent market.  The most intruiging thing about this upcoming free agency is the draft, which boasts one of the more talented classes in recent history.  Several teams have been attempting to "sell the farm" for a chance to pick either Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker.  Such praise for a pair of draft prospects haven't been this high since the arrival of well...Lebron and Carmelo, 11 years prior. Fittingly, they are still the two most discussed players in the league currently, as they each opted out of their respective contracts in the past week.  For Carmelo, the writing appeared to be on the wall from early in the season that he was going to opt-out due to the lackluster performance by the Knicks.  When they ultimately didn't make the playoffs, they couldn't even look forward to a draft pick since it had been traded away years ago.

Wisely, Melo and Lebron are looking to explore their options, aligning themselves with the team and city best suited for success.  Two of the most popular players in the league available in the same season are a rarity and franchises have already begun the process of freeing up cap space in order to obtain one of these players.  Right now, Carmelo's most likely move would be to Chicago but this could change in a matter of hours, as the draft looms and teams alter their opinion on what's best for their franchise.  Since free agents cannot be pursued "officially" until July 1st, it should make for a very entertaining draft with teams trading away high-contract players for cap space for Lebron and allocating draft picks to possibly sign and trade for Carmelo.

Feeling the Heat? Could 'Melo make the move to Miami?

Then there's the option of Lebron and Melo teaming up to create a "mega" team either in Miami or potentially Los Angeles and Houston, teams that have successfully or potentially could alleviate enough salary cap to sign these superstars.  However, it's not easy in the slightest and would still require major paycuts from each superstar to make this happen. For example, if Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh also opt-out, it could lead Pat Riley and Miami to re-work their deals to take less money and make it feasible to sign another star player, like Carmelo.  If that would happen, their supporting cast would be a plethora of players at the league minimum to round out their roster. Another rumor that has swirled around has been Kyle Lowry's interest in joining the Heat this offseason.  Lowry elevated his play to another level in the postseason this season against the Nets and will be the most sought after guard in this free agency period.  He is a jack of all trades, with the ability to shoot, drive, pass and rebound while playing with an enormous chip on his shoulder.  After the memorable performance of Mario Chalmers this year, especially the Finals, it is safe to say that Miami is looking at other options at point.

However, the key cog in the Heat's offseason plans is simply the status of Dwyane Wade. He's not worthy of a max contract with his current health and his previous performances but he may opt-in to take 20 million next year and for 2015-16 due to his history with the team.  If he declines, his contract will be greatly reduced by Miami but can pave the way to keep Lebron and add another star player.  Assuming Lebron would like to stay in Miami, he must know for certain that Wade is going to officially opt-out to start the rebuilding process.  Surprisingly, out of the four stars of the 2003 Draft (Melo, Bosh, Lebron, Wade), Wade has made the least amount of money in his NBA career although he was arguably the best player in basketball besides Kobe Bryant in the middle of the decade.  Knowing this, it does not bode well for Miami in the attempt to convince Wade to take even less money than he was set to receive. His lingering health issues have potentially obscured his future plans and Wade may want a "security blanket" if his knees don't hold up for a few more years.

Teams have been preparing for the day that Lebron and Carmelo would become free agents yet again and the final result will soon come to fruition.  An alliance of Carmelo and Lebron could create yet another power shift right back to Miami for the 2014-15 season and with the potential star power in the draft, new teams could rise from the ashes of their previous season's dumpsters fires.  Only a handful of teams may be in the running to land Lebron or Melo but the lottery teams all feel like they have a shot to draft the next breed of NBA elite talent. So buckle your seat belts basketball fans, because the rest of this summer will prove to be a memorable one.



Here's a list of notable free agents from HoopsHype ... as you can see, there are several free agents that stand out as valuable pieces to assembling a championship roster, but none pale in comparison to Lebron and Melo.

Another intriguing group of players are three up and coming point guards that have played at a high level once they got the chance to play. Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas and Lance Stephenson showed significant improvement last year and are in need of a raise. Each guard made less than 3 million last year, an extreme bargain for their current teams but now it is time for someone to pony up for one of these floor generals.  Based on his body of work, Lance figures to net the largest contract due to his proven success in the postseason, playing at an all-star level throughout last season.  Bledsoe had an excellent year as well but missed significant time with an injury during the middle of the season. Thomas remains the wild card in this group.  After a few average years, he took his game to new heights, averaging over 20 points per game with 6 assists as well, while living behind the 3-point line.  The Kings have been linked to Josh Smith in the past few days and are already on the hook for another year of Rudy Gay's salary.  In order to become a legitimate postseason threat, they must first lock up Thomas.  Their selection in tomorrow's draft should give a glimpse of their plans this summer.

There is also a group of aging stars that are looking to test the free agency market in Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce and Pau Gasol.  Each proved that they still had enough in the tank to compete at a top level for a competitive next season.  I wouldn't be surprised if each player returns to his current team.  As a Nets fan, I was truly impressed by Pierce last season, someone who I didn't give any credit while in Boston.  While Dirk will still be the centerpiece in the Mavericks team that took the Spurs to 7 games in the opening round of the playoffs.  Mark Cuban's Mavs will be a potential landing spot for Carmelo, Lebron or both in the upcoming weeks.